THE SUPER BOWL XLIV SELECTIONS
The Total :
Take a deep breath and realize what has just occurred. The Saints were involved in consecutive games that went OVER the total. Not just any total. Over 57 and 54 points. The total here is set at 56.5 points. Even though they were the top scoring team in the league, it’s unlikely they will go over the 56 point total in 3 consecutive games, and in the playoffs.
Only 1 team has done this in the last 20 years, and that was the San Francisco 49ers back in 1995. They were the only team to be involved in 3 consecutive playoff games where 56+ points were scored. History suggests the Saints won’t do it again. It’s only been done once in 20 years! The Saints were the top scoring team but in the last 4 seasons, the top 2 scoring teams played 28 playoff games and only 4 of the 28 times did a team go over 57 points, most recently the Cardinals and Saints. This will be the 3rd game the Saints went over 56 points if it happens. A stat on that: 19 times this decade has a team been involved in a 57+ point playoff game and in that 2nd playoff game, that team that won the first game was not involved in another 57 point game in 5 of the 19 times. That’s just over 25%. But this is 3x in a row. Like I said that’s only happened once and that was the 49ers in 1995. Per oddsmaker probability, the chances of the Saints (or any team) going over 57 for one game is 50%. The chances of them going over 57, then over 54 is 25%. The chances of them going over 57, then over 54, then over 56, is really about 1 out of 8 or 12.5%. Realistically, the UNDER here could be an 87% play when you look at it from an oddsmaker probability standpoint. Besides, do you think many people are going to be taking the UNDER? Even more of a reason to take it, especially with all this action.
If you take a look at some of the high scoring Super Bowl teams this decade, none of them went OVER the total in the Super Bowl including the 1999 and 2001 Rams, 2006 Colts and 2007 New England Patriots. Only 3 of the last 16 Super Bowls have gone over 56 points.
This game will be played outside and you never know what kind of weather might pop up in Miami, be it rain or wind. The UNDER, considering the Saints have just gone over the big number twice already, should be a safe bet. It’s unlikely the Saints will go over 57, then 54, and then 56, especially in the playoffs. That would be 3 in a row. Something happening twice in a row is basically a 25% chance per odds maker probability. But 3x ?
Additionally, the Colts defense is underrated. The starting unit allowed over 27 points just twice this season. The same can be said about the Saints’ defense. And defense will win this game.
Take game total UNDER 56.5
The Winner:
The Colts are coming into this game 18-0. That’s right. They are not 16-2. They are
18-0. That will be the theme of this selection and before I continue with that etched in the write up, let me tell you why.
They had the Jets beat in week 16. They knew they had the Jets beat. But the management pulled a fast one and ordered the starters pulled with the Jets up 15-10 in the 3rd quarter. Peyton Manning had driven up and down the field with ease and they would have easily beaten the Jets to move to 15-0. He was 14-21 passing with no INT’s and the defense had allowed no offensive TD’s from the Jets. However, much like that infamous UNLV-Seton Hall game back in the days of Jerry Tarkanian when Tark pulled the starters and told his team not to score another point and allow Seton Hall to cover the 8 point spread because of a wealth of goodies involved (including a $100,000 Porsche), the Colts management turned their back on the fans and deliberately lost the game. Not only did they alienate the fans in attendance, they ran the risk of leaving a tainted legacy that would last forever if they Colts hadn’t beaten the Jets in the playoff game, especially since that game allowed the Jets to get into the playoffs in the first place. It was like a failed hit gone bad. Nobody ever thought the Jets would knock off both the Bengals and Chargers on the road to get another meeting at Indy- the team that let them in. But since the Colts won, it doesn’t much matter anymore. But the point is this: The Colts management leaves the starters in that game and they go on to Buffalo at 15-0 and they would have beaten the Bills. Instead, they go in at 14-1 and a now meaningless game turns into another situation where the Colts pulled the starters. This time it was justified, and besides, they were a 9 point underdog at Buffalo because they had nothing to play for with the #1 seed wrapped up. Curtis Painter went 4-17 passing and Joseph Addai did not play along with several defensive starters. Peyton Manning did start and was 14-18 with a TD before he was pulled early in the game. In sum, assuming the Colts would have beaten the Bills which I’m sure they would have, they’d be 18-0 right now. What would this Super Bowl spread be then?
So that leads to this: Should a team who was unbeatable during the regular season be just a 5 point favorite? The Colts have won a few close games this season and you never know what can happen with shady backdoor covers, especially with heavy line moving action on the Colts so I’d be a bit weary of the 5 points but I will say this much: The Colts money line at 2-1 is a deal considering no team has been able to beat them this season. The 18-0 Patriots were a 12.5 point favorite 2 seasons ago, and the 18-0 Colts are a full TD less. And they have the best quarterback this decade, and maybe ever.
One last but important thing: nobody will think to remember that shady Jets game in week 16 if the Colts end up as the Super Bowl winner. They lose this game, and it will be remembered as the “season that could have”. It will be remembered as the season where the Colts could have finished what the 2007 Patriots couldn’t and that’s end up a perfect 19-0. However, that will all be forgotten if they just win this Super Bowl and come back to Indianapolis with some kind of major achievement since the management succumbed to shady unmoral tactics and prevented an undefeated season. They’ll be taking on a Saints team who is (+17) in TO margin this season which means they had a lot of lucky breaks, including in the Vikings game. Don’t get me wrong- they are great and Drew Brees is the real deal, we all know this. But the Colts are better. After all, they are 18-0.
Take Indianapolis to win outright
