week 20

The 2010 NBA value play of the year

With about 20 games to go in the NBA season, it's no surprise the 2 favorites are still the Lakers and Cavs. Both LA and Cleveland are slated at about (+200) to win the NBA title. These are the clear favorites as they are way out in front, so much so that the next best odds are the field at (+725). The Magic are 3rd at about (+850). As well as Dallas is playing, they are 6th at (+1500) while the aging Celtics are (+1000).

There's one NBA team who has defeated all of the above mentioned teams. And not just defeated, but destroyed (Dallas by 36 points, the Lakers by 25 points, Orlando by 18 points, Boston by 9 points). There's one NBA team out of the West that has defeated Cleveland twice.  And that's the Denver Nuggets.

Denver is currently about (+1080) to win the NBA title and (+530) to win the West. In other words, if they make it to the NBA finals, they will once again be a (+500) to win that series, currently, based on the odds to win the title divided by the odds to win the West. We already saw Denver beat the Lakers twice. The most recent time, they were tied at 2 minutes left until Carmelo fouled out, in which case the Lakers got the 6 point win and front door push. We've already seen the Nuggets beat Cleveland both in Denver and at Cleveland.

So let me ask the oddsmakers....what makes them a 10-1 long shot to do it again? I'll answer that for them. Two words: LeBron and Kobe.

Well guess what: LeBron and Kobe are a combined 1-4 this season against the Nuggets.

We all know they hit the jackpot dumping Iverson for Billups, but they now have a full season of continuity under their belt and that was last season when they got to the conference finals and lost to the Lakers. This time around, they could beat the Lakers.  The thinking is that the league "wants" a LeBron-Kobe Finals matchup, but with Tim Donaghy spilling the beans on possible conspiracy theories that may or may not be true, I really doubt they'll be unhappy if it ends up being Carmelo vs. LeBron.   For the record I think a lot of what Donaghy says is true and common sense.  Anyone who was on my website 2 years ago during the Houston Rockets run, I basically said the same thing Donaghy said about how they wanted the Rockets to keep winning because it was good for the league.  The desire to keep stars from fouling out is nothing new either.  M. Jordan traveled and palmed the ball almost every game.  But not everything he says may be true.  There's still plenty of facts that don't back up some of his theories (for example San Antonio, the small market team making it to the Finals for all those seasons).  For anyone who has an up and coming book deal like Donaghy is trying to pull off, always take what they say with a grain of salt. 

Carmelo Anthony might not be as good as LeBron or Kobe but he is pretty damn good. And the Nuggets as a team are on fire, especially at home. Earlier in the season they were riddled with injuries and JR Smith's shot selection was poor. As the season went on, George Karl worked with Smith and got his shot selection better. Smith is also dishing out more assists lately and playing a team game instead of gunner game like he was in the earlier part of the season. And Chris "Birdman" Anderson, I'm telling you he's more of an important player than many realize. Aside from being very coordinated and a shot blocking machine, he is good for the NBA and a fan favorite with his flashy hair and tattoos and believe me, that stuff matters these days. The NBA would have no problem seeing Denver in the Finals. Additionally, Denver will be playing with a lot of heart down the stretch, as George Karl was recently diagnosed with cancer.

Orlando is a solid team but if it comes down to the Magic vs. Cavs for the East title, you have to think Cleveland will have learned thier lesson from last season. Nobody thought they could be defeated after sweeping through Atlanta and Detroit, but the Magic caught them by surprise last year. Should the Cavs meet Denver in the finals, Denver would probably be a 2-1 underdog to win the series if Cleveland gets home court. However, right now they are 5-1 considering they are 5-1 to win the West and 10-1 to win the whole thing.

They already beat Cleveland twice. They destroyed the Lakers twice and embarrassed Dallas before the Mavs started their win streak. They dropped 115 on Orlando, the 2nd most points the Magic allowed since December 10th. They have 20 home wins by at least 9 points, and another 9 road wins by the same. They have road wins over just about every team from the West. They are 4-0 in overtime which shows they have poise in the clutch. They have yet to lose 3 games in a row with both Billups and Anthony in the starting lineup. They have one of the top 3 players in the NBA in Carmelo Anthony, the NBA's top veteran and floor general in Chauncey Billups, and solid players to compliment along with the NBA's top bench.

The Lakers might win it in 7 games, but if Denver can get by them (and they already proved they are up to task), your money will be golden. At more than 10-1 odds to win the whole thing, the Denver Nuggets are worth the stretch.

TFM

Stay tuned for NCAAB selections especially Thursday Night action

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