My entire season of NCAAB write-ups and picks can be accessed in the 'previous picks' section in the drop-down menu above

 

Updated May 10th

 

Choices benefit the bettor

Playoffs benefit the books

I posted the same phrase during the NFL playoffs, and it's absolutely true.  Think about it.  Less games, tight lines.  Really tight.   Oddsmakers always try to get it about even, but it's much easier for them to do so in the playoffs. It just is. 

The next 2 days feature some very even pointspreads.  (I know, they're almost always even, but this is playoffs).  Take the Celtics for example.  After splitting the first 2 games ATS they are a 1.5 dog at Cleveland, probably appropriate.  Now had the Celts covered the first two against the Cavs, then Cleveland would be a play with caution (I say caution with the notion in mind that you shouldn't just assume the same thing will happen in Cleveland like what happened in Atlanta).  However it was a split.  Certainly the Celts can win in Cleveland but the Cavs will fight against going down 0-3.  No play on that game, as well as the Pistons-Magic.  Keep in mind, however, that LeBron shot under 20 percent in the first 2 games at Boston.  That's unlikely to happen in game 3. 

After the Hornets fell apart in the 4th quarter, they open as an even smaller underdog at (-6). Had the spread gone up to 8 or 9 (unlikely anyway) then the Hornets could have the nod, but let's just leave it at that.

My analysis of the Jazz-Lakers has been spot on so far.   They are now a 5 point favorite after a 5 point win, which became a push after opening up at (-4), which I thought was slightly high.   Kobe had a good game but was 0/6 from three land- that was the difference.  Certainly the Jazz are the best of the home court advantages, but the question is weather the Lakers will drop 2 consecutive after covering the first 6 ATS.  Shaky ground. 

How about the New Orleans Hornets!  In the wake of Katrina, what better way to spark up the city's economy than a showdown with the Lakers.  The Saints came close but couldn't do it a few years back with a loss at Chicago.  Look for the Hornets to win at least two home games against the Lakers.

Until then, stay tuned.  But like I said, lines are tight in the playoffs- way to tight for my razor sharp discipline. 

 

 

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Well that pretty much does it for the college basketball season, and what a great season it was.  Like the Super Bowl, it was nice to go out on a winning note with Davidson over Kansas and then Memphis over UCLA   It's not easy to stay disciplined for each and every day of the entire season.  It's actually quite challenging, but I did it for the most part. I did slip up on two or three occasions, once in January and again in round 2 of the NCAA tournament- taking a few ill-advised games that were more of a makeup for round 1.  This is a no-no, and you better believe I will take the few weaknesses from this year and tweak out all the remaining jitters for next season.

I'm really looking forward to next year's NCAAB season.  Until then, there's some NBA left so stick around. With numbers like mine you don't ever have to lose confidence, and the numbers don't lie.  Like my old college bookie Carl used to say- if you're up a dollar at the conclusion of the Super Bowl- that's a major accomplishment.  He's absolutely right, but what about at the end of the NCAAB season!  Well that's me, evident by the fact that I have already moved into 5th all time units for the life of Trackpicks.com (8 years) in just my first year. 

 

still some NBA left so stick around!

mark@thefallmiracle.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

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