The NBA-NCAAB Selections
updated 4/7 9:50 pm et
no selections for Saturday
The first tournament selection was:
WISCONSIN (UNDER 129.5)
vs. OLE MISS
This will be Wisconsin's 3rd highest total number of 2012-2013, yet this over/under selection will not be a standout since Wisconsin was just 13-12 to the over/under on the season. There are several reasons the UNDER should be considered a high percentage play for the first round. For years, Wisconsin has been one of those teams that slows down the tempo and forces a team to play to its own style, and it has worked more and more as the years have gone by (two wins over Indiana this season, and both away from home). So the first round of the tournament will be a great time for the Badgers to keep the ball rolling with an unfamiliar non-conference opponent, which means Ole Miss won't be accustomed to the forced style of the Badgers. Wisconsin is 17-9 to the UNDER in the last five years of post season play, and this game will have to have at least 130 points scored. Wisconsin's last 11 games have not surpassed 130 points and it would have been 12 in a row had the Iowa game not gone to overtime. This Badger team started out by allowing the first two tournament teams it played (Florida and Creighton) to score more than 65 points, but have been on a major roll since. Since the Florida and Creighton games, Wisconsin has played 16 additional tournament teams, and has held 15 of the 16 to under 65 points, which is half of 130 and the number needed to go OVER this total. And we're talking about teams like Ohio State, Michigan and Indiana. In last season's tournament, the Badgers went under 130 points in two of three games, with only the opening round going to just 132 points in a blowout where the Badgers went 10-19 from 3-pt. land and hit 17 of 19 free throws, both way over average. Ole Miss was a high scoring team this season averaging 77.9 ppg, but they scored just 64,64 and 66 points in the SEC tournament, so the Badgers will have juicy film at just the right time on how to stop the Rebels. Keep in mind, also, the Rebels played just six tourney teams this season compared to Wisconsin's 18, so put them in the Big 10 conference and that ppg figure would likely take a tumble anyway. The high percentage play for Thursday and Friday.
Take game total UNDER 129.5
no current pay picks
Last 8 basketball pay picks are 6-1-1 with the 1 loss by a half point.
Pay Pick summary since the start of NCAAB conference tournaments:
"On the Road Again"
Golden State was coming off a win at Cleveland and was favored at New Jersey, but they never win 2 road games in a row. Nets were the pick, and won.
"No sense of Urgency"
Easy call with Oklahoma St. in the 2011 Big 12 second round game that featured a team that didn't need to win (Kansas) favored by 14 points.
This was a dual selection for Saturday in the conference tournaments. Kentucky didn't need to win over Alabama but they did and covered the spread as Bama was the pick. But the night cap and day's top selection was San Diego State over BYU as Jimmer wouldn't get 52 points again or beat the Aztecs 3x in a row, especially without their power forward. Selection Split.
"No sense of Urgency, Part II"
OSU didn't need to win but were favored by 10.5 points over Penn State. They won by 11 points, but Penn State made the tournament anyway. Pay picks are 20-8 now for the life of the site, and 4 of the last 6 losses have come by a half of a point (including Akron +29.5 over Temple in October and TCU -2.5 over Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl).
"A Heat-ed Revenge"
The Miami Heat (-4.5) over the Spurs in the rematch where Miami lost by 30 at San Antonio. This time they won by 30. I also said to take the UNDER, as the Spurs wouldn't hit 18 shots from 3-pt range again and that Miami would step up the defense at home after getting very embarrassed the first time.
Round 1 NCAA Tourney Picks 2011
Wofford and Wisconsin were the round 1 pay picks. BYU was a bit overrated without their leading rebounder and taking on a slew of seniors from Wofford, who covered by a half point. Belmont had 30 wins but none over a quality opponent, and 24 of their 30 wins came over teams void of a winning record. Wisconsin was the better team and not favored by enough.
Sweet 16 Top Play 2011
After laying off going against BYU as a favorite against Gonzaga, it was time to go against them again vs. Florida, especially after Jimmer's shooting success against the Zags. Which wasn't likely to be repeated against Billy Donovan's club that gave up more than 90 regulation points just once all season (Ohio State). Jimmer was one man, but Florida was the better team and returned all 5 starters from last season's tourney loss to BYU. Revenge was in order.
Final 4 Top Play 2011
Butler had been there already the season before, while VCU was new to the Final 4 and coming in high off a big upset over Kansas. Butler was the selection, as the Bulldogs went on to play UConn in the champ game.
no current pay picks
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