“Raising the bet when the dealer is more likely to lose” -------------------
Imagine hovering over your friend who is playing every hand at a blackjack table. You ignore all his bad hands like 12's and 16's. However, when the dealer throws him a pair of Aces, or a 10, 11, or a pair of 8's, your friend let's you throw your money on the table and double down. In other words, you get to be picky and play on the good hands- he has to play on every hand. Who do you think will walk with the money at the end of the night? Other handicappers like to try and pick games every night. I sit back and wait for the best games. Other handicappers represent the guy sitting and playing every single hand. I'm the guy hovering behind them.
Odds makers are very good at making both sides even, obviously. But if you're sharp, they'll occasionally leave a few opportunities open for the experienced players. Their job is to get both sides even. My job is to be smart. I've been handicapping for more than a decade and I know how to deal with the trends, numbers and public consensus among many other things. I always go after high-percentage plays. I deal with football on a weekly basis as one should. The football week starts on Tuesday morning and ends after Monday night football. In addition to playing a Thursday night game, NCAA football has expanded and usually offers games on Wednesday and even Tuesday nights! Often times these games are the only ones on television, so naturally, most people want to play them. In most cases, I strongly advise against this.
During football, I group all the week's games together and pick out the best and most LOGICAL ones, usually about 2-6 selections weekly, instead of needlessly dispelling sub-par information on a game for the simple fact that it's the only one on the schedule that night. When the new football lines come out on Monday night or Tuesday morning, (or nightly during basketball) I know right away which ones are the good ones, instead of licking my finger, placing it up in the air and seeing which way the wind is blowing on gameday. During basketball, I may not have an advantage pick every night. If I don’t like it, I don’t publish it. Other people want to publish a selection for every single night and I feel that the long term win percentage will drop closer to 50% if this is done.
Some of my "secrets" include an amazing but little known NFL trend that usually comes up 15-20 times a season. It was 73% last year and great the year before and I will be keeping a close eye on it this season. I have an easy but little used mathematical equation that works with college football and basketball. I have a few tricks in the NBA as well that you might even be able to pick up on.
I hope you enjoy my keen sense for picking the advantageous games. Stick with me for some very interesting insight and I guarantee you will be a much smarter player by year's end!
