“Raising the bet when the dealer is more likely to lose”
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Imagine hovering over your friend who is playing every hand at a blackjack table. You ignore all his bad hands like 12's and 16's. However when the dealer throws him a pair of Aces, or a 10, 11, or a pair of 8's, your friend let's you throw your money on the table and double down. In other words, you get to be picky and play on the good hands- he has to play on every hand. Who do you think will walk with the money at the end of the night? Other handicappers like to try and pick games every night. I sit back and wait for the best games. Other handicappers represent the guy sitting and playing every single hand. I'm the guy hovering behind them.
Odds makers are very good at making both sides even in the long run, obviously. But if you're sharp, they'll occasionally leave a few opportunities or hidden agendas open for the experienced players. Their job is to get both sides even or do whatever they feel like doing for the house. My job is to be smart. I've been handicapping for more than a decade and I know how to deal with the trends, numbers and public among many other things. I always go after high-percentage plays and find occurrences that have come up rarely but have not been accounted for in the spread. If the game I'm picking is not a statistical high percentage play, then it's a game I believe is in our favor for an extremely good reason.
During football, I group all the week's games together and pick out the best and most LOGICAL ones, usually about 2-6 selections weekly, instead of needlessly dispelling sub-par information on a game for the simple fact that it's the only one on the schedule that night. When the new football lines come out on Sunday night or Monday morning, (or nightly during basketball) I get a fairly quick idea of which ones are the good ones without implying meaningless trends or systems. Other times, special things will develop closer to gametime that I am usually aware of. I am a mathematical wizard which allows me to look at important things quickly. During basketball, I probably won't have an advantage pick every single night. If I don’t like it, I don’t publish it. Other people want to publish picks for every single night and I feel that the long term win percentage will drop closer to 50% if this is done. I am VERY selective and will not be phased, swayed or influenced by anything other than top shelf information.
I hope you enjoy my keen sense for picking the advantageous games. Winning is a good feeling, so stick with me for some very interesting insight, read my write-ups completely and I guarantee you will stay with me and we will absolutely come out ahead and continue to win.
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THE FALL MIRACLE
